Trump Set the Stage for War with Iran
He slammed Biden for Ukraine and Bush for Iraq, so why is he now risking the same kind of war?
We may be watching the start of the most dangerous Middle East conflict in decades and it all hinges on one question:
Does Iran have a nuclear weapon?
In the past week, the tensions between Iran and Israel have exploded into open confrontation. But this isn’t just another flare up. This moment carries the weight of decisions made years ago, especially one made in 2018 by then-President Donald Trump.
And depending on what happens next, we could see history repeat itself in the worst possible ways.
Brief Timeline of Conflict:
June 12, 2025 — The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared Iran non-compliant with its nuclear obligations, citing unexplained nuclear material and a dramatic spike in uranium enrichment.
June 13, 2025 — In a bold move, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, bombing key nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while also assassinating multiple IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) officials.
June 13–16, 2025 — Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones toward Israeli cities. The assault peaked with a strike on a hospital in Haifa, killing over 20 civilians.
June 19, 2025 — The IAEA confirmed Iran is now enriching uranium to 60% purity, just short of weapons-grade, and expanding its underground nuclear program at Isfahan.
All of this unfolds as former President Donald Trump considers endorsing or authorizing a U.S. military response. A decision is expected soon, within the next two weeks, and it could redefine American foreign policy for the next decade.
The 2018 Decision That Changed Everything
To understand today’s crisis, we have to go back to 2015 and the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal.
This agreement, brokered under the Obama administration, required Iran to:
Dramatically reduce uranium enrichment,
Cut centrifuge numbers,
And allow inspections by the IAEA.
In return, Iran would receive sanctions relief and access to $100+ billion in frozen assets. It was far from perfect, but it was working, at least temporarily.
Then, in 2018, President Trump withdrew from the deal. He called it “disastrous” and argued it empowered Iran without addressing its missile program or regional aggression. Sanctions were reimposed. Iran’s economy collapsed and its compliance with nuclear limits did too.
Since then, Iran has only escalated. Which brings us to today.
Do They Have Nuclear Weapons?
The most important question of this entire conflict is terrifyingly simple:
Does Iran already have a nuclear weapon or are they bluffing?
Evidence They Might:
The IAEA reports enrichment at 60%—dangerously close to weapons-grade (90%).
Thousands of centrifuges operating in heavily fortified underground facilities.
Iran has recently blocked inspections and expelled nuclear monitors.
Israeli intelligence suggests Iran has the components (they just haven’t assembled them yet).
Evidence They Might Not:
No confirmed nuclear test or deployment of a functional warhead.
Enrichment may be political leverage, not military preparation.
Some analysts say Iran’s moves are about deterrence, not destruction.
In short: we don’t know. And that makes this all the more dangerous.
If War Happens, What Would It Mean?
Let’s be honest, Trump’s foreign policy has always been bold, but not always consistent.
He’s given Joe Biden intense criticism for funding the war in Ukraine, arguing it’s a waste of American resources and a distraction from keeping “America First”.
He’s also hammered George W. Bush over the Iraq War, calling it “one of the worst decisions in American history”, a war based on false intelligence that destabilized the Middle East and cost countless lives.
But here’s the problem:
If Trump funds a military operation in Israel, or worse, puts U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, he’s doing the exact same thing he condemned Biden and Bush for.
Sending troops based on shaky intelligence?
Funding a foreign war with unclear end goals?
Getting entangled in another Middle Eastern failure?
That’s not “America First.” That’s history repeating itself.
To be fair, Trump’s record does include real foreign policy wins:
Earlier this year, he brokered a peace deal between India and Pakistan, avoiding a war between two nuclear powers.
He previously met face-to-face with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, breaking decades of U.S. diplomatic stalemate.
And under his leadership, ISIS lost its territory and key leaders.
But if he greenlights another war now, without hard evidence of a nuclear threat, it undermines everything he’s said about Biden’s recklessness and Bush’s mistakes.
My Take
I supported Trump in 2018. I still respect his instinct to be tough on Iran. The JCPOA had major flaws, it ignored Iran’s proxies, its missile program, and sunset clauses that would have expired in the 2030s.
But withdrawing without a replacement strategy opened the door for Iran to move unchecked. And now, we’re closer to war than we’ve been in years.
If Iran does have a nuke, this is serious. But if we don’t know, if we’re launching strikes based on guesses, we risk repeating the worst mistakes of our recent past. I’m just glad I’m not the one in the Oval Office with two weeks to make the decision.
But what do you guys think? As always feel free to reach out to me on YouTube, Instagram, or TikTok!! @drewgreenmeier